Market Update Through January 23, 2014

Here is the Market Update through January 23, 2014. Please note that the Valley Wide graph represents all of the MLS. The table below that graph just represents recordings for new and resales for Maricopa County.

We have decided to put these graphs into a Market Update Book for you to use at listing appointments, at Open Houses or with Buyers. They are printed in full color!! Just let us know how many you would like and we will bring them by your office. This will be Volume 1 2014.

Tip: These are great to use when managing your clients expectations. Point out the absorption rate by area to let them know how fast things are selling!

The comments are:

Active Listings and Sales: Total active listings (with no UCB/AWC) have gone up by 1033 units over the last month. As of January 23rd we sit at 25, 118 actives all property types. Sales are at 4549 for the last 30 days (January 23rd), down by 831 units from one month ago! We are currently sitting at a 5.5 months of supply, (based on Active listings with no UCB/AWC). Pending sales are up from the month before as of January 23rd, 5671 vs. one month ago at 5549. Traditionally,  3-4 months of supply indicate a balanced market. December re-sales and new sales in Maricopa County were 6686. In November 2013 they were 5943 .  December 2012 was 7,531, this is an 11% decrease in year over year.

Absorption rate: Absorption rate is the % of sales that are sold each month of the inventory. A higher percent means that inventory is moving at a fast rate, and thus is a Seller’s market. Certain areas of town have very high absorption rates, they are:

East Valley 25%
Peoria/Glendale 24%
Desert Ridge 32%
Ahwatukee 28%
Median Price: The median price in Maricopa County for December 2013 was $203,000 in November 2013 it was $200,000. In December of 2012 it was $168,900 for a 20% increase!!!! In December 2007 it was $247,400 and in December 2001 it was $143,800!

Distressed Market Pie Chart: This chart shows you the percentage of distressed properties that are being listed and sold. Short Sales represent 8% of the closings for the last month, and a 3.0 Months of Supply. Distressed Sales (Short Sales and REOs combined) accounted for 17% of the total sales for in the last month. REO property sales equal to 9% of the sales for the last month. Normal non-distressed sales are now 83% of the total!!!!!

Check out our new graph! It is the last one! Gives you the average dollar per square foot of solds by month on a line chart going back one year. Prices have risen by 46% since November of 2011!

Luxury: The Luxury Market of $1.0 Million and above continues to be the lowest absorption rate of any market segment. There was a 6% absorption rate for the last month. There were 89 properties in all of the MLS were sold for more than $1.0 million.

Please click on the link below to take you to the Graphs. You can save/print/email them from there! Use these with all of your clients, as a news letter and at open houses! Everyone wants to know what is happening in Real Estate – Be the authority!! Remember that you can always go to www.eta-az.com and click on Sales and Marketing then Market Update for this info as well!

Equity Title has great marketing tools and programs to help you get more business – call me to set up an appointment!

MONTHS OF SUPPLY (with AWC/UCB listings) (Single Family Only)

East Valley: 4.0

Northwest: 5.1

Paradise Valley: 12.2

Luxury ($1mil+): 15.5

Southwest: 4.4

Peoria/Glendale: 4.2

Camelback Corridor: 4.4

Cave Creek: 12.3

Ahwatukee: 3.5

Scottsdale: 7.6

Apache Junction: 7.6

Fountain Hills: 8.8

Buckeye: 6.5

Desert Ridge & Tatum Corridor: 3.1

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“As Phoenix-area home prices rise more ordinary buyers find opportunities”

This fact-filled article – direct from ASU – should be shared with your buyers and sellers and at open houses. Be sure to check out the links at the end of the article for the full Housing Report and an excellent Podcast featuring Mike Orr and a summary of the market.

As Phoenix-area home prices rise more ordinary buyers find opportunities

Posted: January 10, 2013

Debbie Freeman, Debbie.Freeman@asu.edu, (480) 965-9271, Communications Manager, W. P. Carey School of Business

The latest report from Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business, shows that more ordinary buyers may be getting into the Phoenix-area housing market, as investor interest wanes a bit.

More ordinary buyers are finally getting into the Phoenix-area housing market as home prices continue to rise and investors find fewer bargains to snap up. That’s according to a new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, which reveals the numbers for Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of November:

• The median single-family home price continued to rise, jumping from $157,000 in October to $162,500 in November.

• The tight housing supply grew 31 percent between September and December, but another drop may be coming in the spring.

• All-cash offers are finally on a downward trend, signaling that investor interest may be waning a bit and more ordinary buyers are able to successfully compete for homes.

Phoenix-area home prices reached a low point in September 2011, followed by a sharp rise that’s expected to continue into 2013. The median single-family home price in November was up to $162,500 from just $120,000 last November — a 35.4-percent increase. Realtors will note the average price per square foot rose 27.4 percent year-over-year. The townhouse/condo median price is up almost 43 percent, from $70,000 to $100,000.

However, according to the report’s author, Mike Orr, the market is unbalanced, with not enough homes available for the many buyers, especially at the lower end. The number of homes for sale, but not under contract, was down 7 percent year-over-year at the start of December. Specifically, the amount of bargains or “distressed supply” was down a whopping 43 percent from last year. Things started to improve this fall, with total supply up 31 percent from September to December, but Orr doesn’t see more good news coming.

“We don’t see a strong flow of new listings coming onto the market,” says Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “For example, short-sale listings are down about 70 percent compared to this same time last year. As the market improves, it seems many people may have decided to hang onto their homes in an effort to let values keep going up. I also anticipate another possible drop in supply this spring. Unless new-home builders can start keeping up with rising demand, we may have a chronic supply problem.”

Ordinary buyers, who usually need financing, still face multiple bids and tough competition from investors offering sellers preferred all-cash deals. In fact, almost half (48.4 percent) of the single-family-home sales under $150,000 in November were all-cash purchases. However, the percentage of homes bought by investors declined from 35.5 percent in August to 27.5 percent in November. Orr says investor activity peaked around August and is on a long-term downward trend. With the possible exception of a brief, normal holiday spike in December/January, he expects a continued drop in investor activity.

“As prices go up each month, price-sensitive buyers, such as investors, get a little less enthusiastic,” explains Orr. “Bargain hunters haven’t got much left to pick over, which is allowing more normal buyers to jump into the market before prices rise past what they can afford.”

Foreclosures are down in the market. Completed foreclosures on single-family and condo homes dropped 34 percent from November 2011 to November 2012. Foreclosure starts – homeowners receiving notice their lenders may foreclose in 90 days – went down 48 percent.

Sales activity stayed relatively level, dipping just 1 percent from November to November. The most expensive types of sales, new-home sales and regular resales, are up 32 percent and 84 percent. All types of discount sales, such as short sales and bank-owned-home sales, are down.

Almost every area of the Valley has seen prices explode over the past year, led by Pinal County, including Eloy, Arizona City and Maricopa.

Orr’s full report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed athttp://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Full-Report-201212.pdf. A podcast with more analysis from Orr is also available fromknowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com/index.cfm?cid=13.

Keeping You Positively Informed – Phoenix Housing Market

Our Positively Keeping You Informed campaign is our way of bringing up-to-date and positive news to you so you can share it with your clients. Read, “Phoenix, Arizona home price gains lead the nation (again)’ from the Phoenix Business Journal for some great news about our local market!  Share this news with your Sellers, your Buyers, at Open Houses! Be a knowledgable resource for your clients – and when you write a contract, use Equity Title Biltmore Office!

Equity Title Tip:

2013 Day Planners, Desk Calendars and Pocket Calendars are here! Let me know what you need and I’ll bring them to your office. Of course, you are always welcome to stop by, say hello to the Escrow Officers and get your calendar while you are here as well!

Phoenix, Arizona home price gains lead the nation (again)

Phoenix Business Journal by Kristena Hansen, Reporter Phoenix Business Journal

Date: Tuesday, November 27, 2012, 2:48pm MST

Arizona home prices are up 20 percent from a year ago.

Not so surprisingly, yet another national housing report — this time from the Federal Housing Finance Agency — has determined that home price gains this year in both metro Phoenix and Arizona have once again far outpaced the rest of the country.

The FHFA data released Tuesday shows Arizona landed the No. 1 spot for the biggest year-over-year increase — about 20 percent — in median sales prices in the third quarter. The District of Columbia trailed behind in second place with a 15.5 percent jump during the same period, followed by Idaho’s 9.5 percent rise, according to the report.

Arizona’s home price appreciation was also significantly greater than the national year-over-year average of 4.04 percent in the third quarter. However, the Grand Canyon State was still notably down — by almost 37 percent — from the boom times in 2007, the report said.

The FHFA report also ranked home price appreciation in the nation’s 25 largest metropolitan areas and Phoenix clenched the No. 1 spot there as well — and by a long shot — for both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter gains.

The Valley’s 26 percent spike in median prices from the third quarter last year was way ahead of the Houston and Miami metro areas, which both saw gains of roughly 10 percent.

Phoenix’s 7.2 percent jump from just the second quarter of this year also far outpaced the second-place ranking of 3 percent in the Oakland, Calif. area, the report said.

While housing data from different research entities almost always has some degree of variation, the FHFA figures seem to be in line with some previous reports this summer from Zillow Inc. andCoreLogic. Both ranked Phoenix and Arizona as having the biggest upswing in home prices.

Andrew Leventis, principal economist at the FHFA, said in Tuesday’s report that home appreciation in the third quarter mirrored the springtime this year, which is traditionally the busiest in real estate, but said the housing recovery is still somewhat hampered.

“The past year has seen consistent price increases, but a number of factors continue to affect the recovery in home prices such as stagnant income growth, high unemployment levels, lingering uncertainty about the macro economy and the large number of homes in the foreclosure pipeline,” Leventis said.

His latter point — foreclosure backlogs — is less applicable to Arizona.

In fact, I wrote a story about that very topic on Monday based on a recent study by Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business, which determined Arizona’s less-restrictive mortgage laws have played a big part in the rapid recovery of its housing market this year.

Click Here to see the Full FHFA Report