Market Update Through January 23, 2014

Here is the Market Update through January 23, 2014. Please note that the Valley Wide graph represents all of the MLS. The table below that graph just represents recordings for new and resales for Maricopa County.

We have decided to put these graphs into a Market Update Book for you to use at listing appointments, at Open Houses or with Buyers. They are printed in full color!! Just let us know how many you would like and we will bring them by your office. This will be Volume 1 2014.

Tip: These are great to use when managing your clients expectations. Point out the absorption rate by area to let them know how fast things are selling!

The comments are:

Active Listings and Sales: Total active listings (with no UCB/AWC) have gone up by 1033 units over the last month. As of January 23rd we sit at 25, 118 actives all property types. Sales are at 4549 for the last 30 days (January 23rd), down by 831 units from one month ago! We are currently sitting at a 5.5 months of supply, (based on Active listings with no UCB/AWC). Pending sales are up from the month before as of January 23rd, 5671 vs. one month ago at 5549. Traditionally,  3-4 months of supply indicate a balanced market. December re-sales and new sales in Maricopa County were 6686. In November 2013 they were 5943 .  December 2012 was 7,531, this is an 11% decrease in year over year.

Absorption rate: Absorption rate is the % of sales that are sold each month of the inventory. A higher percent means that inventory is moving at a fast rate, and thus is a Seller’s market. Certain areas of town have very high absorption rates, they are:

East Valley 25%
Peoria/Glendale 24%
Desert Ridge 32%
Ahwatukee 28%
Median Price: The median price in Maricopa County for December 2013 was $203,000 in November 2013 it was $200,000. In December of 2012 it was $168,900 for a 20% increase!!!! In December 2007 it was $247,400 and in December 2001 it was $143,800!

Distressed Market Pie Chart: This chart shows you the percentage of distressed properties that are being listed and sold. Short Sales represent 8% of the closings for the last month, and a 3.0 Months of Supply. Distressed Sales (Short Sales and REOs combined) accounted for 17% of the total sales for in the last month. REO property sales equal to 9% of the sales for the last month. Normal non-distressed sales are now 83% of the total!!!!!

Check out our new graph! It is the last one! Gives you the average dollar per square foot of solds by month on a line chart going back one year. Prices have risen by 46% since November of 2011!

Luxury: The Luxury Market of $1.0 Million and above continues to be the lowest absorption rate of any market segment. There was a 6% absorption rate for the last month. There were 89 properties in all of the MLS were sold for more than $1.0 million.

Please click on the link below to take you to the Graphs. You can save/print/email them from there! Use these with all of your clients, as a news letter and at open houses! Everyone wants to know what is happening in Real Estate – Be the authority!! Remember that you can always go to www.eta-az.com and click on Sales and Marketing then Market Update for this info as well!

Equity Title has great marketing tools and programs to help you get more business – call me to set up an appointment!

MONTHS OF SUPPLY (with AWC/UCB listings) (Single Family Only)

East Valley: 4.0

Northwest: 5.1

Paradise Valley: 12.2

Luxury ($1mil+): 15.5

Southwest: 4.4

Peoria/Glendale: 4.2

Camelback Corridor: 4.4

Cave Creek: 12.3

Ahwatukee: 3.5

Scottsdale: 7.6

Apache Junction: 7.6

Fountain Hills: 8.8

Buckeye: 6.5

Desert Ridge & Tatum Corridor: 3.1

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Market Update Through September 8, 2013

Inventory (All Areas & Types in MLS): Total active listings (without AWCs/U,CBs) have increased by 1854 units in the last month. As of September 8th, we sit at 18,746 Actives for All Property Types. Sales are at 6885 for the last 30 days (as of September 8th), down by 1348 units from one month ago! Pending Sales are down from the month before – as of September 8t, there are 7,443 Pending vs. 9,047 Pending one month ago. We are currently sitting at a 2.7 months of supply (based on Active without AWC/UCB). Traditionally, 3-4 months of supply indicate a balanced market. Now is the time to take listings!

Absorption Rate: Absorption Rate is the percentage of Inventory that is sold each  month. A higher percentage means that inventory is moving at a fast rate and indicates a Seller’s Market. Specific areas of the valley have very high absorption rates, for example:

  • East Valley: 40%
  • Peoria/Glendale: 45%
  • Desert Ridge: 45%

Sales: In August 2013, there were 7965 Re-Sales and New Sales in Maricopa County, compared to July 2013, when there were 8744. In August 2012, there ewre 8755. That equates to a 9% decrease month-over-month and a 9% decrease year-over-year!

Prices: The Median Price for Maricopa County in August 2013 was $195,000; in July 2013 it was $198,000. This marks a 2.5% decrease! In August 2012, the Median Price was $155,000 – so we re currently at a 25% increase year-over-year! Looking back at past years Median Sales Prices: August 2007: $253,000 – but in August 2001: $140,000.

Distressed Market Pie Chart: This chart shows you the percentage of distressed properties  that are being listed and sold. Short Sales represent 10% of the Closings for the last month for a .8 Months of Supply. Distressed Sales (Short Sales and REOs combined) accounted for 19% of the total sales for the last month. REO Sales represent 9% of the sales from last month. Normal, non-distressed sales are now 81% of the market! That is the highest it has been in 5 years!

Luxury: The Luxury Market of $1,000,000+ continues to have lowest absorption rate of any market segment, and this month, we have seen a slight dip in this market segment compared to the previous month. There was 8% absorption rate for the month of August. There were 81 properties in the MLS that were sold for more than $1,000,000 in August 2013.

Months of Supply (includes AWCs, Single-Family only)

East Valley: 2.5

Northwest Valley: 2.7

Paradise Valley: 6.1

Luxury ($1 mil+): 12.3

Southwest: 2.2

Peoria/Glendale: 2.2

Camelback Corridor: 3.4

Cave Creek: 4.1

Ahwatukee: 2.9

Scottsdale: 4.4

Apache Junction: 3.6

Fountain Hills: 5.2

Buckeye: 3.1

Desert Ridge & Tatum Corridor: 2.2

 

Market Update through End of February 2013

Here is the Market Update through February 21st, 2013 . Please note that the Valley Wide graph representsall of the MLS. The table below that graph just represents recordings for new and re-sales for Maricopa County.  We have added a new bar to the Valley wide graph that shows what the listings are with no AWC’s in them.

Below are the comments:

Total active listings, (with no UCB/AWC) have dropped by 526 units over the last month. As of February 21st, we sit at 17,353 Actives All Property Types. Sales are at 6433 for the last 30 days (as of February 21st), up by604 units from one month ago!  We are currently sitting at a 2.7 months of supply, (based on Active listings with no UCB/AWC). Pending sales are up from the month before as of February 21st,10,860 vs one month ago at 9,280 . Traditionally,  3-4 months of supply indicate a balanced market.  Now is the time to take listings!

January 2013 re-sales and new sales in Maricopa County were 6,463 in December 2012 they were 7,531. That is a 14% decrease from month to month.  January 2012 was 6,373. That is a (1.0%) increase! The median price in Maricopa County for January 2013 was $170,000 in December 2012  it was $168,903. This marks a 1% increase! January 2012 it was $128,121for a 33% increase!!!! In January 2007 it was $261,090 and in January 2001 it was $135,000!

Distressed Market Pie Chart: This chart shows you the percentage of distressed properties that are being listed and sold. Short Sales represent 17% of the closings for the last month, and a .9 Months of Supply.  Distressed Sales (Short Sales and REOs combined) accounted for 32% of the total sales for in the last month. REO property sales equal to 15% of the sales for the last month.  Normal non-distressed sales are now 67% of the total!!!!!! The listing success rate for Short sales is 60.5% ! Don’t avoid these listings! They are closing with greater success rate!

Check out our new graph! It is the last one! Gives you the average dollar per square foot of solds by month on a line chart going back one year.

Luxury: The Luxury Market of $1.0 Million and above continues to be the lowest absorption rate of any market segment. There was a 6% absorption rate for the last month. Only 63 properties in all of the MLS were sold for more than $1.0 million.

Market Update Through January 1, 2013

Here is the Market Update through January 1st, 2013 . Please note that the Valley Wide graph represents all of the MLS. The table below that graph just representsrecordings for new and re-sales for Maricopa County. We have added a new bar to the Valley wide graph that shows what the listings are with no AWC’s in them.

Take a look at our comments for the charts:

Total active listings, (with no AWC) have dropped by457 units over the last month. As of January 1st, we sit at 17665 Actives All Property Types. Sales are at 7064for the last 30 days (as of January 1st), up by 244 units from one month ago!  We are currently sitting at a 2.5months of supply, (based on Active listings with no AWC). Pending sales are down from the month before as of January 1st, 8026 vs one month ago at 9170 . Traditionally,  3-4 months of supply indicate a balanced market.  Now is the time to take listings!

December 2012 re-sales and new sales in Maricopa County were 7531 in November 2012 they were 7306. That is a 3% increase from month to month.  December 2011 was 7801. That is a (4.0%) decrease! The median price in Maricopa County for December 2012 was $168,903 in November 2012  it was $167,500. This marks a 1% increase! December 2011 it was $129,054 for a 31%increase!!!! In December 2007 it was $247,405 and in December 2001 it was $143,790! Maricopa County new and Re-sale sales for the year ended with 95,912 sales vs. 201194,771. This equates to a 1.0% increase!

Distressed Market Pie Chart: This chart shows you the percentage of distressed properties that are being listed and sold. Short Sales represent 28% of the closings for the last month, and a .8  Months of Supply.  Distressed Sales (Short Sales and REOs combined) accounted for 40% of the total sales for in the last month. REO property sales equal to 12% of the sales for the last month.  Normal non-distressed sales are now 60% of the total!!!!!!The listing success rate for Short sales is 59% ! Don’t avoid these listings! They are closing with greater success rate!

Check out our new graph! It is the last one! Gives you the average dollar per square foot of solds by month on a line chart going back one year.

Luxury: The Luxury Market of $1.0 Million and above continues to be the lowest absorption rate of any market segment. There was a 7% absorption rate for the last month. Only 71 properties in all of the MLS were sold for more than $1.0 million.

“‘Fiscal Cliff’ Bill Addresses Some Key Housing Issues”

This new article from Inman News shares this informative article sharing how the new bil will affect the housing market – including the extension of the 2007 Mortgage Debt Relief Act!

Equity Title Tip:

Get back to basics with farming! Listings are worth gold. We now have three new resources for you!

  1. Are you thinking of Selling? mini seller guide: Use if you are walking your neighborhood as a “leave item” customized with your photo, logo and contact information! Helps the client begin thinking about listing their home and why they should use a REALTOR.
  2. FSBO Guide:Walks the client through why it is difficult to sell their own house and why they need a team in place.
  3. Market Update Guide: Current Statistic Market Graphs and a synopsis of what is going on in the Market! Great for open houses, manage buyers expectations, and for listing appointments!

‘Fiscal cliff’ bill addresses some key housing issues

Battle over mortgage interest deduction still to come

By Ken Harney, Wednesday, January 2, 2013. Inman News®

When the monthlong congressional game of chicken known as the “fiscal cliff” ended late last night in the House of Representatives, housing and real estate emerged as winners on most key issues.

The Senate bill that finally passed the House by a 259-167 vote extended a number of federal tax code provisions that are important to homebuyers, sellers, builders and real estate professionals.

The bill also made permanent the Bush-era reduced tax brackets for all but the highest income earners in the country, along with a permanent “patch” to the increasingly troublesome alternative minimum tax (AMT) that threatened millions of middle-income homeowners with higher taxes.

Here’s a quick overview of what the legislation means for housing:

Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief extended through 2013

For huge numbers of financially distressed owners of homes with underwater mortgages, this was the biggest issue in the entire fiscal cliff debate. The mortgage debt relief provisions in the tax code, first enacted in 2007, expired at midnight Dec. 31.

Had Congress not acted, the tax code would have reverted to its pre-2007 treatment of mortgage principal reductions or cancellations by lenders, whether through loan modifications, short sales, deeds-in-lieu or foreclosures: All principal balances written off would be treated as ordinary income to the homeowners who received them.

For illustration, if a lender wrote off $100,000 of debt to facilitate a short sale, the seller would be taxed on that $100,000 at regular marginal rates, just as if he or she had earned it as salary.

A return to taxation of principal reductions would have disrupted short sales — a growing segment of the home real estate market — in 2013, and almost certainly would have encouraged more distressed owners to opt for foreclosure and bankruptcy.

Deduction of mortgage insurance premiums

The bill retroactively extended this benefit to cover all of 2012, plus continues it through 2013. Qualified borrowers who pay private mortgage insurance premiums or guarantee fees on conventional, low down payment home loans, FHA, VA and Rural Housing mortgages will be able to write off those premiums along with their mortgage interest on federal tax returns. The retroactive feature is crucial because Congress had allowed this deduction to lapse at the end of 2011. There are limitations, however: The write-off is available only to borrowers who have an adjusted gross income below $110,000.

Tax credits for energy-efficiency home improvements

This benefit provides modest tax credits of $200 to $500 for owners who install energy-efficient windows, insulation and other upgrades designed to cut energy consumption. The bill covers improvements made during 2012 and 2013.

Tax credits for new energy-efficient new houses

This allows builders and contractors to claim a $2,000 tax credit on new homes constructed in 2012 and 2013 that meet federally specified energy-conservation standards. The bill also extends credits for U.S.-based manufacturers of energy-efficient refrigerators, clothes washers and dishwashers. As with other energy-related tax provisions, this had expired last year and will now be continued through 2013.

So what’s negative in the fiscal cliff compromise bill for real estate?

Not a whole lot for homeowners who aren’t in the highest income brackets. But for those who are, there are provisions that likely will inflict some pain.

Start with marginal tax rates and capital gains. If you earn $400,000 or more as a single filer or $450,000 as a joint filer, your new marginal federal tax rate is 39.6 percent.

You also get hit with a 20 percent rate on long-term capital gains, such as those from investment real estate and home sales that rack up gains beyond the $250,000/$500,000 thresholds.

Also, the new “Obamacare” 3.8 percent surcharge on certain investment income, which went into effect Jan. 1, could raise effective rates on capital gains for upper bracket households to 23.8 percent. As a result, some investors in rental property and commercial real estate may begin looking again to Section 1031 tax-deferred exchanges to hang onto their profits.

For taxpayers in the 33 percent, 28 percent and lower marginal tax brackets, capital gains will continue to be taxed at 15 percent.

Perhaps the crucial question to ask about the new legislation is: What could have been in the fiscal cliff compromise package affecting real estate but wasn’t included? That’s easy: There are none of the “grand bargain” deduction limitations on mortgage interest and property taxes that had been proposed by tax system reform proponents.

But don’t assume those proposals are moribund. Quite to the contrary, they are likely to arise again this spring and summer, when broader scale debates over the shape of the tax code get under way. Once that process starts, watch out: Home real estate tax preferences like the “MID” will be front and center on the chopping block.

Ken Harney writes an award-winning, nationally syndicated column, “The Nation’s Housing,” and is the author of two books on real estate and mortgage finance.